Photo by Purdue Athletics
I’VE SEEN ENOUGH Purdue basketball to know that the current team is competitive, but overall expectations should be tempered. The good, the bad, and the ugly sides have surfaced in this fast-moving season.
The team is a mere shadow of last season’s squad, and in its two losses, its weaknesses were exposed. The key to beating Purdue is to take Braden Smith out of the game. Touted as the best point guard in the country, when he is unable to move freely, he presses. Smith’s tendency to jump when passing the ball on offense is his biggest tell when he’s trying too hard.
When he is playing well, the team is formidable, as in its 9-point win over No. 2 Alabama on November 15. When teams take him out of his norm, Purdue is reduced to chaos, with no offense—as was evident in the team’s 81-70 loss to Penn State on December 5.
Even though starters Smith, Trey Kaufman-Renn, and Fletcher Loyer provide the base for this team, there is no depth yet at point guard. The development of freshmen C.J. Cox and Gicarri Harris is vital to Purdue’s late-season health. If one of these guards shows he can fill in at the position consistently, play excellent defense, and score, then the pressure on Smith will go away, and the offense will open. Cox has shown flashes of possibility, scoring double figures in four games. But he has also gone scoreless in five games, so his inconsistency remains.
The surprise star is Kaufman-Renn. At 6 feet, 9 inches, he is Purdue’s big man. For a team that used to have a Sequoia-sized player in the paint, he is more like an oak tree. He provided great support last year but has proved himself to be a force inside, scoring 18.9 PPG and snagging 6.7 RPG on average.
But just as it is at the point guard position, depth in the middle is scarce. One would think Caleb Furst would be able to pull his game together by now. But nearly every time he gets the ball on offense, in my opinion, he gets too excited and fails to convert. A 6-foot-10-inch senior who has played in this system for four years should be averaging more than 4.4 PPG and 1.7 RPG with his talent. Just saying. The other two backup bigs on the roster, Will Berg and Raleigh Burgess, are very much works in progress. Burgess has shown the most potential of the two in limited playing time, but both are far away from providing backup at center.
The player who holds the key to whether this season is another success or a season of struggle is Camden Heide. His upside is astronomical, his talent is deep, and his shot is pure. He is a threat from literally anywhere on the court. But again, the consistency in his play is lacking.
The “I can’t wait to see what he does” player for the fans on this roster is sophomore Myles Colvin. In the past few games, Colvin, who has averaged 7.3 PPG and 4 RPG, has shown improvement on defense and by attacking the glass. He is a capable shooter but is struggling for—once again—consistency. But Colvin showed his promise with a 20-point outburst against Ole Miss, which included an offensive putback for the championship win in the recent Rady Children’s Invitational tournament.
So will Purdue win the Big Ten? No. Will they finish in the top 25? Yes, probably somewhere between 20 and 25. Will they make the field of 64? Yes, but as a 9 or 10 seed with nothing but potential to improve before then.
As fans, we’ll just have to wait and see, but it should be entertaining.
